Økonomiske forutsetninger Gullfaks landsbyen 2007
Olje og gass forutsetninger Olje pris [USD/bbl] Gass pris [NOK/Sm] 2007 58 1.43 2008 50 1.19 2009 45 1.05 2010 40 0.89 2011 .. 35 0.78 2014 0.74 Exchange rate: 6 NOK/USD Diskonterings faktor: 8 %
Brønn kostnader Subsea/Platform brønn. Avhenger av type brønn og lengde. TTRD Sidesteg Ny brønn, MLT Ta kontakt med gruppe kontaktene dere i Statoil for input avhengig av brønnkonsept dere velger.
Usikkerheter Olje priser: High/Low case: +/- 40 % Low price bruk 20 USD/bbl long term for olje. High price bruk 50 USD/bbl long term for olje CAPEX/OPEX High/low case: +/- 40 %
Decision criteria NPV at base price (EPA) NPV at low price NPV at high price Expected net present value, E(NPV) Probabilities to be used for different oil prices, with all other parameters kept unchanged are 60 % for base oil prices, 20 % for low oil prices and 20 % for high oil prices. Prob: 20 %, High price Prob: 60 %, Base case Prob: 20 %, Low price
Real options This is a way of capturing value that is not recognized in traditional NPV analyses. With an uncertain future, there is a value in having the flexibility to decide what to do after some of that uncertainty has been revealed. The flexibility, if any, to wait, abandon or expand on an investment opportunity is captured in a real option. In traditional NPV analyses, the ENPV is calculated on the basis of cash flows reflecting uncertainties in and relationship between different underlying parameters
Economic/market related assumptions Tax-related assumptions Risk or uncertainties of a project are captured by calculating the effect on the ENPV of both positive and negative changes in these parameters such as: Economic/market related assumptions Tax-related assumptions Technical assumptions IOR Start-up date Environmental assumptions Country and reputation risk. The project decision is made, based on expected outcomes, before the realised value of the relevant parameters are revealed. Simple methodology of valuing real options is using decision trees with probabilities for different outcomes. (applying existing, proven technology to reduce number of wells to improve production performance)