A review of exploration activity and results on the NCS

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1 A review of exploration activity and results 2015-2017 on the NCS
Hans Martin Veding

2 Exploration activity follows the oil price
*) Oil price with one year lag

3 Drilling activity the last 3 years

4 From wells to Discoveries – what did we find?

5 From wells to Volumes – what did we find?

6 From wells to targets – what did we drill?

7 Reporting of data from operators
For wildcat wells, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate must receive both the prognosis and result on a separate form in digital format as an appendix to the final report. In the event of a discovery, the discovery evaluation report must also be submitted. Regulations relating to resource management in the petroleum activities Section 30 Final reporting of geo-technical and reservoir well data Database contains allmost 1100 exploration targets with prognosis and result from all wildcat wells completed in 1990 and onwards These regulations stem from the FIND cooperation (late 1990s)

8 Reasons for dry targets in selected NPD plays in the North Sea
Selv om det er interessant å analysere hele norsk sokkel kan analysen være mer nyttig når en har tilstrekkelig data til å analysere utvalgte letemodeller og letemodell segment Denne sliden viser et eksempel fra Nordsjøen Letemodeller i øvre trias til midtre jura i Nordsjøen: Slike analyser kan gi grunnlag for interessante spørsmål Er mangel på kilde hovedgrunn til tørre letebrønner i disse områdene? Kan bedre seismisk avbildning, mer avanserte analyser av petroleums-systemer og bedre integrering på tvers av faggrupper gi økt forståelse? Hvordan kan maskinlæring og stordata bidra?

9 Reported drilling targets 2015-2017 – Pre drill

10 Discovery rates – prognosis vs result

11 Very concistent – and very optimistic

12 We have seen it before 8th through 14th licensing round
16th through 22nd round and APA

13 Why are the volume prognoses so poor?
Methodology? The way we do post mortem analysis? Current prospect evaluation methodology and tools? The way we use our tools? Too complex or too simple models? Different biases? Are explorerers optimistic by nature? Are we just fulfilling management expectations? Company internal competition?

14 Some shortcomings with the current dataset
How is success defined, in relation to the CoS? (above a minimum value or that the well will be classified as a discovery) No data on the minimum value of the volume estimate Is the CoS adjusted according to well placement, i.e. is there a chance that the well misses an actual accumulation? No data on possible DHI adjustment of the CoS

15 Definition of sucess vs volume prognosis
mean P10 Is this a success?

16 Prospect 36/7 C3-E (Norsk Hydro, 2002)

17 Do we need a FIND2 on the NCS?

18 Proposal 2 The NPD proposes to form a forum to share learnings across the industry. This could be organized under the FORCE umbrella. Topics that could be covered could be (but not limited to): Prospect volumetrics and risking Performance tracking and post well anlysis Case studies – lessons learned Peer review processes

19 Questions?