NB: Program for onsdag 14.02, Strategi 2 Intuisjon i strategiprosess, Gisle Henden Bjarne Kiil vil gjennomgå kursperspektiv, gjesteforelesers rolle og temasammenheng som en oppsumering midt i semesteret Basert på spørsmål fra studenter vil Bjarne Kiil drøfte og gi råd i forbindelse med semesteroppgaven. Blir det tid vil kaosteori bli initiert, og vil antakelig bli fulgt opp i en senere forelesning oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Strategi 2: Strategiprosess Sesjon 6 Bjarne Kiil, Ph. D. Professor II, Institutt for strategi oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Planning perspective (W+M) First explicitly formulating comprehensive plans, and only then implement. (Figuring out) oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Incremental perspective Some strategists argue that in reality most new strategies emerge over time and that organisations should facilitate this messy, fragmental piecemeal formation process. Strategic Intent “Quinn”: Father of the paradigm shift to Incrementalism “Reasonable and well considered” Re: Incremental Somewhat like innovators: Searching, experimenting, learning, doubting and avoiding premature decision closures and “lock-in” oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The ten strategy tensions WM 2nd edition 1.1 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Strategy as Revolution Perspektiv på kurset (W+M) page 150-166 chapter 3 Tension Planning Incrementalism Quinn: Logical Incrementalism Hammel & Prahalad: Strategic Intent Hamel: Strategy as Revolution (Warming up) Strategy formation Tension 3 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Planning versus incrementalism perspective, tension 3 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Øystein Fjeldstad Viktig dimensjon (kortsiktig - langsiktig) Tension 4 Exploitation Revolution Exploitation Evolution Behov for begge (Balance) Behov for variasjon “Experts Myopia” Plassering på skalaen har innflytelse på “Process Perspective” Finner igjen i “Edge of Chaos” Strategic change Tension 4 Innledning/motivering til innovasjonsledelse, kreativitet oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Discontinuous change versus continuous change perspective, tension 4 WM 2nd edition, 4.1 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Ragnhild Kvålshaugen “Knowledge development cycle”- mechanism Knowledge management Organisational learning Selforganisation Innovation “Knowledge development cycle”- mechanism Strategic intent Logical incrementalism Planning Incrementalism Strategic Thinking Tension 2 “Evolver - Revolutionary” Sequential OR simultaneously Edge of Chaos (balance + simultaneous) Nonaka: “The knowledge creating company” oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The rational thinking versus generative thinking perspective, tension 2 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Reidar Ness Co-operation - Consultant Management Focus on the value and importance of analysis and rational thinking This is not unique to Planning Perspective “Quinn”, “Strategy intent” and “Innovation” all include analysis and rational thinking Incrementalism without target will also include “event driven” analysis. Management Tension Highly analytical Highly experimental and learning oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Bjarne Kiil Chaos perspective: Why? Unknowable Selforganising Robust strategies Experimenting Deep structure/? Feedback and transformation Why? The theory “confirm scientifically” the explicit and tacit assumption and concept embedded in “strategy literature”, i.e.: Little new, but an additional approach Control vs. chaos Tension 9 Beinhocker: “Edge of chaos” Macintosh & Maclean: “Conditioned emergence” oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Øivind Revang Management of change - Implementation Change path analysis Cultural aspects Implication on “Prosess dimention” (Reflect) Strategic change Tension 4 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Mark Kriger Organisational vision Purpose Direction - strategic intent: Reflect! Interrelationship process vision values culture leadership “The core of the course”: To develop such understanding oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Olav Fjell (konsernsjef) Case: Reflect on perspectives along several dimensions oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The strategic intent – key issues (From Hamel & Prahalad) Strategic intent is clear about the goal, flexible as to means Allows for improvisation and creativity Limited value of analysis (Honda, Cannon, Sony, “Twenty Years War”) The goal of strategy is to fold the future back into the present What must we do next year to get closer to our strategic intent Ambitions out of proportion to resources Obsession on winning Establish criteria for chartering the process Intent, more than wishful thinking and ambition Active management process based on Essence of winning Value of target oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The strategic intent – key issues Stable over time, lengthen attention-span of organisation Identify focal points for employees effort in near to medium term (intent derivatives) I.e. reduce development time with 75 per cent Search for accelerated organisational learning Leveraging resources Growth depends on ability of top managers to aggregate the effort of multiple teams towards an ambitious strategic intent Playing by the industry leaders rules is competitive suicide Examples: Man on the moon before the Sovjet Union NEC’s strategy/intent 1970: “Acquire the best technologies that will put the company in the best position to exploit the convergens of computing and telecommunication” Coca Cola – to put a Coke within “arms reach” of every consumer in the world oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The strategic intent – key issues On the other hand: Planning perspective typically acts as a “feasability sieve” Be precise about how and what Encourage management to “be realistic” How can Honda detail 20 years of strategy for attacking western markets Top managers are like astronauts, to perform well they need the intelligence that is back on the ground oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Eksempel “Strategic intent” Restrukturering av industrien (mål 3 aktører, høye inngangsbarrierer) 10 x (dagens størrelse) Østeuropa - hovedområde for selskapets vekst Kun relatert diversifisering dvs benytter strategisk kjerne Vekst gjennom allianser prefereres oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Oppgave Med utgangspunkt i prosessperspektiv, “finne” ut (bedømme) hva som “preger” den bedrift som er valgt. Mange forskjellige dimensjoner og kombinasjoner kan karakterisere en bedrift. (Gradering, ikke sort eller hvitt.) Skissere ideer til framgangsmåte Uten at dette representerer “et krav” Andre angrepsmåter kan være interessante (kreativt) Ønskelig? W+M, Ch. 3: P. 150 - 166 (i kompendium) W+M, Ch. 2: P. 69 - 85 W+M, Ch. 4: P. 237 - 250 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Mulige elementer Begrepsavklaring - Hoveddimensjoner Refleksjon, valg og håndtering av sekundær dimensjoner Valg av egnet framstillingsmetode (grafisk) Valg av indikatorer Analyse av “caset” Tolkning inn i begrepsapparatet Konklusjoner verbal grafisk oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Mulig hovedbegrep Incrementel Plan Innovasjon Skala 1:10 for hver dimensjon oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Er dette et egnet alternativ? Incrementel Incrementel +intent Plan Innovasjon Strategisk intent - bevisst filosofi eller tacit? oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Eksempler på mulige kandidater til “dimensjonen” Planlegging Incrementale Strategisk intent Strategisk fleksibilitet Ledelsens filosofi “Top down, bottom up” Bruk av analyse Strategisk tenkning. Rasjonell eller kreativ Innovasjon lærende as selvorganisering Foretningsmessig eksperimentering Mulig gradering eller gruppering i primære og sekundære i forhold til de overordnede prosessperspektiv) Håndterbart antall Skala 1:10 med polariseringsbegrep oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Innovasjon (Kan nyttegjøres i oppgave 1 og 2) Organisasjon Arbeidsprosesser Produkter Forretnings- modeller Industri- struktur Balanse exploitation-exploration Exploitation Exploration oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Er en slik fremstilling egnet til tolkning? Klart og stabilt mål Hendelsesdrevet Innovasjon Entreprenør- lederskap Analyse Planlegging Incrementel Er en slik fremstilling egnet til tolkning? oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Indikatorer på valgte dimensjoner Hentes fra det aktuelle “bedriftscase” (konkrete hendelser eller forhold) Identifiseres Domene Eksempel: Innovasjonsdomene Klart, stabilt mål Indikatordomene for Strategic Intent oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Denne kan om ønskelig og egnet bygge på analyse i oppgave 1 oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

System dynamics What is needed is a model of a world where innovation, change and uncertainty are natural state of things “Edge of chaos” viewpoint. Instability, selforganisation, spontaneous and unpredictability. Innovations avoiding upheaval as in chaos “Dissipative structures”. Order emerge from chaos through interaction of rules, deep structure and organisational processes oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Punctuated equilibrium Time Change Stasis Punctuation points oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Typical performance (400 companies) Industry mean Return to shareholders 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 5 10 15 20 Years Years Years oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The edge of chaos Fitness Stasis Edge of chaos Chaos Slow, incremental change Rapid, radical change oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

According to "Stacey" Nothing can remove that unknowability and it follows that, if an organization is operating in the border area of stability and instability, as it must if it is to innovate, then any decision making process that involves forecasting, envisioning future states, or even making any assumptions about future states will be ineffective. Those applying such processes in conditions of bounded instability will be engaged in fantasy activities oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Example: Microsoft Focused and Robust Shaping bets (Windows) Hedges (OS/2) No regrets (object oriented programming) oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Rules for picking probes Develop many types of low cost probes (time and content variation) Choose some probes with high risk of failure (effective learning) Pick probes requiring implementation followed by measurement of result Volatile business environment requires more probes Big probes to be subdivided for maximum learning opportunity Verify most likely future using probes Use also some random probes Result of probes to shape strategic moves “Timebox” probing, commit to action oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The bifurcation diagram Performance (output) Bifurcation point Time (input) oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Amended bifurcation diagram Performance (output) (2) Bifurcation zone (1) Time (input) oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Deep rules Ø. Lorentzen Old rules: Top-down (generations) Poor economic control accepted Use of marketing brokers Attitude to partners Planning perspective Diversified/conglomerate New rules: Bottom up Tight economic control Marketing and sales internalised Partner symmetry Incrementalism One business focus oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

Conditioned emergence Equilibrium Declining performance Bifurcation point Chaotic period Failure Success Old archetype New archetype oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6

The conditioned emergence model Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Conditioning Creating far-from equilibrium conditions Managing the feedback process Identification of the deep structure and rules that underpins its current archetypes Formulation of a new deep structure consisting of new rules + selected old rules Movement away from equilibrium conditions to create space for the new deep structure Typical mechanism is a major restructuring exercise Key managerial task is looking for signals consistent with new structure Encourage anything that reinforces the rules while suppressing negative feedback oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 6