Kompleksitetsforskningen og dens muligheter innen arbeid med sosiale innovasjonsprosesser, læring og utviklingspørsmål Stig O. Johannessen, PhD Complexity and Management Centre (CMC)

Hva er kompleksitetsforskning? * En prosess-orientert metodologi som tar på alvor funn fra tverrvitenskapelig kompleksitetsforskning * En forskning som forsøker å forstå fenomener som har blitt oversett av tradisjonell vitenskap, slik som fraktalitet, ikke-linearitet, emergence (framvoksing), selvorganiserende prosesser, spontane skift av mønster, ”det nye”, radikal uforutsigbarhet. * Hva vil det si å forstå organisasjoner/samfunn som komplekse sosiale prosesser?

Systemisk tenkning: Den dominante tenkningen om organisasjoner/samfunn Dominant ide: Holistisk instrumentalisme. Samfunnet (utdanning etc) er dynamiske systemer som må sees helhetlig, og som kan styres kybernetisk.

Myter og erfaringer om forutsigbarhet og kontroll Sist gang jeg snakket for denne forsamlingen var 12. september i fjor. Styringsrenten var på forsommeren kommet opp til 5,75 prosent – et ganske normalt nivå. I august fortalte industribedriftene i vårt regionale nettverk at veksten ville holde seg oppe. Utviklingen tok en annen retning. I november beskrev de omslaget som «et infarkt». Lehman Brothers’ konkurs den 15. september utløste en krise med svikt i tillit til banker, motparter og kontraktspartnere og svikt i tro på fremtiden. Verdensøkonomien gikk inn i en kraftig nedgangskonjunktur.Vi ble påvirket av utviklingen ute både ved sviktende tilgang på lån til bankene, svakere etterspørsel etter våre eksportvarer og stor usikkerhet om den økonomiske utviklingen*. Svein Gjedrem (2009) Foredrag i regi av Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) ved Handelshøyskolen BI, 30.9.2009.

Eksempel på tradisjonell systemisk tenkning Oppvekstkommisjonens dokument: Forslag til en vedtatt visjon Helhetlig opplæringsløp ”Det gode” – god opplæring, god ledelse, gode rutiner, god kommunikasjon, god informasjonsflyt, gode lærere, gode systemer... Planlagt læring og kreativitet Annerledes enn det bestående (!)

Krav om tydelighet: Tydelig ledelse, tydelige forventninger, tydelige lærere, tydelige planer, tydelige foreldre, tydelige kjøreregler, tydelige krav.... Helhetlig organisering. (Foreldreopplæring?) ”Best practice”

Sette i system: ledelse, organisering, pedagogikk, kreativitet, helhetlig kvalitetssystem, belønningssystemer, varslingssystemer Rapportering, rutiner, prosedyrer, kontroll. Felles forpliktelser, felles mål, felles visjon, felles bevissthet..... Feedback, mål, måling, resultater.... Endringprosesser, fleksibilitet, kompetanse....

Målrettede tiltak Skape likhet Slutte å behandle alle likt Lage skjema. Rapportere, få informasjon, forpliktende plan..... Lage gode overganger....gode rutiner, prosedyrer, samordning... Lojalitet til nasjonal modell. ”Ta grep”

Bli sett! Innfør generelle ordninger Instruks til rektorer om å kvalitetssikre, motivere og forbedre Arrangere vekkelsesmøter Forbedre humankapital Økt informasjon Snakke mer - dialog Slutt å snakke, og begynn å handle Gi påfyll Ta i bruk enda flere og større systemer (EU).

Implications of taking a complexity view Social phenomena as emerging, non-linear, unpredictable, paradoxical and self-organising

Possible examples of social innovations as emerging self-organising shifts of patterns of communication, power and identity

Transforming and sustaining: industrial and social innovation   * Innovation in established industry and in education are perhaps the main enablers of longterm society well-fare and sustainability. However, this constitutes a classic paradox: * How do we improve and sustaine current contexts and at the same time develop new sustainable contexts?

Transforming contexts

NTNU NTNU

Norwegian salmon

Milk Island

How does transformations happen? Systems thinking: according to desicions by powerful people or groups. Someone (actors) or something (structures/systems) are in control Complexity thinking: according to spontanous and sustained self-organising emergence of patterns of communication, power and identity. No actor or structure are in control. There are only actors trying to persuade, negotiate and influence each other without knowing the consequences

Myter om forutsigbarhet og kontroll Empires do not in fact appear, rise, reign, decline, and fall according to some recurrent and predictable life cycle. It is historians who retrospectively portray the process of imperial dissolution as slow-acting, with multiple overdetermining causes. Rather, empires […] function in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period. And then, quite abruptly, they collapse. * Ferguson, N. (2010). Complexity and Collapse. Empires on the Edge of Chaos. Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, side 18–32.

Transforming contexts in Norway How does themes of communication change? Experiences of identity? Power configurations? How does the ”meaning of life” for a 16-19 year old change?

Emerging theme 1: Transforming industry and society Oil, gas and beyond

Innovations in technology: creating tomorrow's solutions Technology and innovation have always been the keys to our commercial success. As separate companies, we pioneered the use of advanced underwater solutions. Together, we're redefining the limits of recoverable resources in Norway and abroad. The history of our technology development begins with starting from scratch back in the seventies, then exploring new technology frontiers by teaming up with leading national academic, research and technology environments, while continually learning from the leading international players in our industry. Today, we are recognised technology leaders in the international market.

Pioneering carbon dioxide management 25 Pioneering carbon dioxide management Aim to be the best performing manager of CO2 value chains An early mover in the field Operating some of the world’s largest projects Statoil is a pioneer in the capture and storage of carbon dioxide, operating some of the world’s largest projects in this environmentally important arena. This competence is know-how with a growing value, as the skills and technology involved can be used to reduce CO2 emissions from carbon-intensive oil and gas projects. We are currently engaged in three large-scale CO2 capture and storage operations in addition to one established carbon capture project in facilities around the globe. In the North Sea The world’s first plant for capture and storage of CO2 began operation in 1996 in the North Seas’s Sleipner field. Here, CO2 is captured from produced gas and stored in a geologic layer some 1,000 metres below the sea floor, where it is trapped and cannot seep out into the atmosphere. Every year nearly a million tons of CO2 are captured and stored at Sleipner. In the Barents Sea The Snøhvit field in the Barents Sea delivers gas to the world’s first LNG plant equipped with CO2 capture and storage technology. Snøhvit gas contains CO2 that would freeze to solid material during gas-cooling to liquid process. In order to avoid this, CO2 is captured and separated from the gas. Close to 700.000 tons of CO2 will be captured at Snøhvit and stored in the same manner as at Sleipner. In the desert Statoil’s third CO2 injection project is located at the gas field In Salah in the Algerian Sahara. Here, CO2 and natural gasses are separated using the same techniques as at Sleipner, enabling the plant to achieve capture and storage of 1.2 million tons of CO2 per year since 2004. At the heat and power station Construction of a combined heat and power station at Mongstad promises to create major energy savings and emission reductions. Statoil plans to build a CO2 capture plant for emissions from the facility, and include capture from key emission points in the refinery. In addition, a test plant for CO2 cleaning technologies will be constructed at the site. 25

The BP-blowout in Gulf of Mexico

Extending subsea technology to ultra-deep waters 27 Extending subsea technology to ultra-deep waters Extend our leading position Increase recovery and open sub-ice and deepwater areas Compact, environmentally-friendly solutions Our goal is to extend our leading position in subsea processing and long distance multiphase transport. Through the development of innovative technology, we aim to increase recovery and enable developments in sub-ice and deepwater areas. The company’s technology strategy in this area focuses on compact, environmentally-friendly solutions which improve recovery and permit long subsea tie-backs. At Tordis, we have pioneered the world’s first complete subsea solution for separating and injecting water and sand from the wellstream. The subsea processing plant at the field yields added recovery. Leading the development of improved multiphase transport are projects like Tyrihans oil-dominated multiphase transport, Snøhvit’s gas condensate transport and the heavy-oil solutions being employed at the Peregrino field. Compact seabed separation plants will be a key to success in deepwater areas like the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil. To meet this need, the CompactSep JIP project is working on a plant for use in depths of 2500-3000 metres, depths which are beyond the reach of traditional equipment. Last but not least our effort to verify subsea compression systems for the Åsgard field at our K-lab facilities paves the way for future subsea to shore solutions in combination with subsea processing. 27

Building green renewable growth platforms Floating offshore wind 2nd generation (sustainable) biofuels based on cellulose Within New energy our aim is to build green growth platforms. Offshore renewable energy and developing 2nd generation biofuels are two important areas to start with. Offshore wind Statoil has obtained a strong position in floating offshore wind through the development of the HyWind full-scale demonstration project and from acquiring substantial holdings in SWAY. Technology focus areas include offshore multi-megawatt turbine design, medium and deep water substructure and foundations; improved solutions for operations and maintenance; and development of grid connections and power transmission. Offshore wind might provide a basis for developing other offshore renewable sources. 2nd generation (sustainable) biofuels Second generation biofuels are based on cellulosic material conversion and therefore have a more positive environmental profile than their predecessors. We aim to establish a robust platform for biofuels using 1st and 1.5 generations technology as a springboard to 2nd generation, sustainable, cellulose-based fuels. 28

Natural sciences in school - how to sustain recruitment National Knowledge Centres; e.g. VILVITE / Bergen, and Science Centre / Trondheim Newton Energy Room First Lego League National forum for science subjects Natural Science Centre – Geo oriented program and tools Background: In general, young people in Norway are not choosing to study math, physics, or chemistry. In addition, there is a high rate of turnover in the schools; 60% of today’s teachers will be out of that profession by 2016 – only 8 years from now. More than merely a Norwegian challenge; this trend holds true in many countries, and is a major issue for society, industry in general and Statoil in particular. Justification Technology is a key enabler for Statoil’s future success. Access to young talents with scientific subjects in their skill profile is a critical success factor. As the largest corporation in Norway and as such a major consumer of scientific talent, we have an obligation to become involved, state our concerns and take an important role in the public debate in order to help change the situation. As an international player, Statoil is engaged in all our markets in supporting educational programs which will engage and motivate young people to choose natural sciences as their educational path. We believe such thought leadership will support our needs, and help sustain our position as an attractive employer and partner. The initiatives have clear connections to the corporate campaigns “Heroes of tomorrow” and “Solutions for tomorrow”. Potential In Norway, Statoil is currently investing large amounts in various educational initiatives and programs at all levels in the school system. As a result, the corporation has many proof points. Some of the initiatives are under development and ready for announcement early next year, such as the Newton Rooms. Other established initiatives are: cooperation with National Knowledge Centres (such as VILVITE / Bergen and Science Centre / Trondheim), First Lego League, our cooperation with National forum for science subjects and Natural Science Centre (Geo-oriented programs and the development of tools). 31

Emerging theme 2: Shift away from panoptic logic in architecture, education and organisation

The Panopticon Foucault says in “Discipline and punish”, “He is seen, but he does not see. He is an object of information, but never a subject of communication”. ”The Panopticon is a machinery which provides asymmetry, difference. It is of no matter who enforces power “... In this way the panoptic effect is obtained: the inmate should always be and know that he is visible – because then power is functioning automatically“. The observer is totally distanced, a non-person.

The Panoptic logic of the school institution The exercise of power--in the case of school--takes place in buildings specially designed to assure effectiveness. By going to school, the children are assigned the role of pupils (as the prisoners in Benthams Panopticon), they must follow the rules of the school, are integrated into a group, forced to subordinate themselves to a teacher and to follow her/his leadership. Source: Dr. Liana Müller

The Panoptic logic of the school institution The pupils can see the teacher, but not his/her agenda for control. The teacher can change her/his behavior adapting to the needs of the pupils, but only while following certain predetermined methods, sticking to already decided subjects and books, and serving the purpose to achieve a certain outcome. Source: Dr. Liana Müller

The Panoptic logic of the school institution The discipline imposed assures the efficiency of the school despite limited resources: A single teacher can control a relatively large group of pupils and, at the same time, make sure that all of them understand the presented topics and follow the instructions. To assure proper learning, the teacher has to elaborate a plan, to fix the subjects, to choose the methods and the books to be used, to have a purpose and an efficient evaluation plan.

Panoptic architecture Closed and isolated classrooms. The classroom with strictly defined roles for both the teacher in front of the class and for the pupils sitting on banks aligned in rows, such that the supervision is as perfect as possible. Symbolicly “forget what you know, subordinate yourself, behave yourself, we know better” “The Panopticon is a very good place to do experiments on humans” [Foucault].  

Panoptic logic: Discipline and punish   In the PISA study, Norway was assessed to have the second worst disciplinary climate in its schools in the OECD (only Greece was worse). There appears to be little debate in Norway as to whether  the informality in the classroom, mixed-ability teaching in all subjects, lack of sanctions on poorly behaved children and allowing children almost complete freedom to do what they want has any impact in causing poor discipline *. * SCHOOL REFORM: A SURVEY OF RECENT INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE, Dep of Education and Skills, UK, June 2006

Does the tests reflect the type of competence needed in future society? The tests are designed in a ”panoptic logic”: Individual isolation, strict control, no discussion, no aid from technology etc. The complex challenges of the future are not solved by isolated individuals, but as advanced collaborative efforts. If the argument for the tests are international competitiveness, does these tests make pupils less or more competitive internationally?

Departing from the Panopticon Companies that are competing internationally, such as Statoil, sponsor and encourage non-panoptic learning ideologies used f.ex in First Lego League, in educating potential future employees.

Discipline, collaboration and creativity in practice (First Lego League project for all 12-16 yrs: Building and progamming robots, making group presentations and ”stands” to ”market” their product/solution)

The school as a society and society as a school * The social patterns of ”learning” and ”education” are not given, they are patterns of action involving structure/physical environment * The school building is not a given entity either. First, it is one of many arenas for learning and education. Second, reorganising is a characteristic of our time, hence the school as building and organisation should have the possibility to reorganise as part of everyday life. *The school building of the future is in itself an evolving process of development and learning.

The future: from school buildings to learning societies? * Internet and communication technologies dissolves controlled (panoptic) learning and urges a redefining of what a school is, physically and mentally. * Children bring more complex experiences than ever before into the groups at school and it is important to take their experience/knowledge seriously. * Local development work, distributed and global project work, collaborations and experimentation

The future: From panoptic rationality to human complexity in pedagogy and organisation? The experiences and knowledge participants (children, teachers, etc) bring are valued. They encourage each other to be active and curious participants in their own education and emerging interest fields, and to learn not only from the teacher or the expert, but also from each other and the society around them. People are not resources and they do not have more or less resources inside them. Their qualities and value can rather be judged in terms of the quality and value of the interest that others take in them.

Kompleksitetsforskning og arbeid med innovasjon, læring og utvikling Nye ideer og konseptuelle forståelser av organisasjonsprosesser Nye måter å arbeide med utviklingsprosjekter Potensielt økt effektivitet og kvalitet, spesielt i omfattende prosjekter.