Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet

 From natural curiousity to data-model fusion  Model selection – applying models for solving environmental problems  Applying the INCA models for solving environmental issues  Goals; the Sealink and the Refresh projects  The INCA-P model  Model parameterisation  Calibration and validation results  Scenario analyses  Conclusions

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet

natural curiosity observation qualitative information

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet • Natural curiosity  observations  information Measurements monitoring data spatio-temporal data base

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet • Natural curiosity  observations  information • Measurements  monitoring  data bases • Statistical analyses  empirical models • Physical laws/relationships • Finer spatio-temporal resolution of the models (improving requirements and computing capacity)  process-based models

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet qualitative information and experts knowledge models spatio-temporal data bases data- model fusion Data-model fusion is an advanced approach for studying complex systems

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet Spatial resolution LISEM SWAT INCA HYPE HBV DrainMod COUP SWAP HYDRUS-1d Empirical/statistical (AgriCat; NutRet) Global models experience-based Time resolution Process-based

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmetKIWASWATDrainModHBVINCA-P Soil_NO COUP AgriCat? Q1.1. How well does the model’s output relate to the task? Q1.2. How well does the model’s spatio-temporal resolution compare with the requirements of the task? Q1.3. How well the model has been tested under conditions in focus? Q1.4. How complicated is the model in relation to the task? Q1.5. How is the balance between the input data and data availability? Q1.8. How is the peer acceptance for the model with scientific theory? Q3.5. How is the model’s flexibility for adaptation and improvements? Possible answers: Good; Adequate; Inadequate

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet Projects: Sealink (Norwegian Research Council) coordinated by NIVA; (Per, Annelene, Johannes, Hans Olav) Refresh (EU FP7) coordinated by NIVA (Eva, Marianne) Objectives • To quantify the sources of N & P to surface water bodies (Sealink) • To identify possible cost-effective measures to reduce loadings of N & P under changing conditions (Sealink) • Cost-effective restoration program for freshwater ecosystems that accounts the expected future impacts of climate and land-use changes (Refresh) Methods • Data-model fusion • Modeling chain (HBV  INCA  My Lake) • Using the benefit from JOVA data, collected in the well-studied Skuterud catchment for parameterising the models

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet  Data since 1993  Detailed data available on • Farm management practices • Runoff, nutrient and soil losses • Climatological data • Soil data available  Total area: 4,5 km 2  Arable land: 2,7 km 2 (61 % of total area)  Forest: 1.3 km 2 (31% of the total area)  Grain crops dominating (80-90 %)  Subsurface drainage system  Spacing, L= 8 – 10 m  Depth, d = 0.80 – 1.00 m Skuterud Østensjøvannet Årungen Monitoring station

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet INCA-P model: • process-based • semi-distributedmodel of the sediment and P transport in the • dynamiccatchment and river system Catchment hydrology: • direct runoff • soil zone • groundwater zone INCA-P simulates at a daily time-step • water flow and storage • sediment and P loads from different land-use types • in-stream SS, total, particulate and dissolved P concentrations

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet Driving variables in daily time-step INCA Daily estimates of water discharge in river water • soil moisture deficit (from HBV) • hydraulically effective rainfall • air temperature • actual precipitation Model parameters • sub-catchment • reach • in-stream • land-phase • general parameters • surface, soil and groundwater flow daily dynamics • results presented separately for different land use types INCA models: - process-based - semi-distributed - dynamic - deterministic OUTPUT INPUT

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet In-stream cell Hydraulically effective rainfall Soil zone Groundwater zone Soil surface Percolation =  * q sz Transport to stream = (1 –  * q sz Transport to stream = q gz Cell Model Land component Precipitation Evaporation Surface runoff to stream

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet

1.Parameterisation • Available data from the Skuterud catchment and reach • Literature review • Expert assumptions (qualitative information) 2.Calibration procedure • Stepwise calibration approach (flow; SS&TP) flow flow&SS&TP 3.Validation procedure 4.Scenario analyses

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet • Warming up period: 1 September, 1993 – 31 December, 1993 • Calibration period: 1 January, 1994 – 31 December, 1999 • Validation period: 1 January, 2000 – 30 April, 2008 •Land use types: • Forest (31%) • Grass (2%) • Arable, No Autumn Tillage (18%) • Arable, Autumn Tillage (41%) • Urban (8%) •Peculiarities: land-use specific calibration

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet

natural curiosity observation qualitative information

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet Calibration period Validation period

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet

• Lacking information about site-specific water, sediment and P losses • Lacking information about river bank erosion • Lacking soil information for non-agricultural areas • Poor representation of sediment sources from river bank erosion • Limited spatial structure of the hill slope component of the INCA models

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet  Fertilisation ( 50 % increase/decrease)  Land use (crop field changed to a) grassland b) vegetables, c) forrest)  Soil management (different areal proportion of autumn and spring tillage; sawing and harvesting dates)

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet

Conclusions • Satisfactory results were obtained for flow, sediment transport and TP for the whole calibration and validation periods, but not for individual year • Merging of monitoring data, qualitative information from local experts and physical knowledge about processes on runoff and nutrient loss formation (performing data-model fusion) is an appropriate approach for improving our understanding of the system in focus • It is important to use all the available expert-based information while calibrating simulation models (reference data for sediment losses from diff. land use areas) • Models, used on a wise way – understanding their strengths and weaknesses – can be useful tools in decision making • It would be important to obtain data on runoff, sediment and nutrient losses not only at the catchment level, but also from dominant land use types and soil tillage systems.

Ekstremer i avrenning under klima endringer, hvordan kan vi anvende resultater fra JOVA - programmet Thank you for the attention!