Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Klima, oseanografi og is i Polhavet Prof. Stein Sandven direktør ved Nansen Senteret

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Arctic Climate System Warm surface waters Cold Arctic waters Cold deep waters River runoff 100 Gt/year = 0.3 mm/yr Warming ice/snow melting Increase run-off Wildcard - Greenland Ice Sheet Deep water formation conveyour belt Strong natural variablity

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Arctic-wide annual average surface air temperature anomalies relative to the mean, based on land stations north of 60°N. Data are from the CRUTEM 3v dataset, available online at data/temperature/. Note this curve does not include marine observations. data/temperature/ Arctic air temperature

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Bergen Climate Model (BCM) Simulation of sea surface temperture

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Predicted Arctic sea ice area in September during 21 st century Comparison of output from 18 different CMIP3 GCM’s. Reference sea ice extent is mean the sea ice extent from (“Satellite Era”). Forcing is the SRES A1B emissions scenario “medium forcing” ie CO2 concentrations of 700 ppm by 2100 (from [Boe et al., 2009]). 30 years of satellite data

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Arctic ocean circulation and water masses Modified from B. Rudels (2011; Encyclopedia of the ocean: Arctic Ocean circulation)

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Oceanographic profile data from the Arctic basins Modified from B. Rudels (2011; Encyclopedia of the ocean: Arctic Ocean circulation) TemperatureSalinity

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Observed thickness reduction from submarine data and from satellites from 2003 Mean thickness: 1980: 3.42 m, 2000: 2.29 m (Rothrock et al., 2008 Kwok andUntersteiner, 2011)

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013

The Ice-Tethered Profiler data are collected and made available by the ITP program based at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, starting in 2006 ( Oceanographic buoy programme Ice Tethered Profilers: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 French programme coordinated by Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (Jean-Claude Gascard) Strategy * 15 autonomous platforms operating at any given time during 6 years. * 6 new platforms every year (exit thru Fram S., detroyed by ice ridges) >>> * total of 40. Expected life time : 2 years pr platform Logistics: 2 deployment periods per year

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Vision: Multipurpose acoustic system for the Arctic Arctic Ocean Observing System using Acoustic Network and underwater platforms Ongoing The vision Projects coordinated by NERSC: ACOBAR – EU: 2008 – 2013 UNDER-ICE (NFR):

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 Acoustic propagation: travel times can be used to monitor longterm temperature change in the deep ocean AMOC project, Johannessen et al 2001 Deep going rays Trapped rays

Norsk og Nordisk forskning i det sentrale Polhavet – Møte i Det Norske Videnskapsakademi 17 april 2013 The background document was produced in 2005 by the EuroGOOS Arctic Task Team Arctic ROOS is a contribution to the IPY project no. 379: "IPY Operational Oceanography for the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas" coordinated by Prof. Ola M. Johannessen, endorsed by IPY Arctic ROOS was established in December 2007 at the foundation meeting in Luleå, hosted by EuroGOOS and SMHI S. Sandven from Nansen Center in Norway was elected chair and hosts the secretariat of Arctic ROOS Arctic ROOS Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System: An association of 16 member institutions from 9 European countries with the aim to develop Arctic components of Global Ocean Observing System