Økonomiske forutsetninger Gullfaks landsbyen 2007
2 Olje og gass forutsetninger ÅrOlje pris [USD/bbl] Gass pris [NOK/Sm] Exchange rate: 6 NOK/USD Diskonterings faktor: 8 %
3 Brønn kostnader Subsea/Platform brønn. Avhenger av type brønn og lengde. – TTRD – Sidesteg – Ny brønn, MLT – Ta kontakt med gruppe kontaktene dere i Statoil for input avhengig av brønnkonsept dere velger.
4 Usikkerheter Olje priser: – High/Low case: +/- 40 % – Low price bruk 20 USD/bbl long term for olje. – High price bruk 50 USD/bbl long term for olje CAPEX/OPEX – High/low case: +/- 40 %
5 Decision criteria NPV at base price (EPA) NPV at low price NPV at high price Expected net present value, E(NPV) – Probabilities to be used for different oil prices, with all other parameters kept unchanged are 60 % for base oil prices, 20 % for low oil prices and 20 % for high oil prices. Prob: 20 %, High price Prob: 60 %, Base case Prob: 20 %, Low price
6 Real options This is a way of capturing value that is not recognized in traditional NPV analyses. With an uncertain future, there is a value in having the flexibility to decide what to do after some of that uncertainty has been revealed. The flexibility, if any, to wait, abandon or expand on an investment opportunity is captured in a real option. In traditional NPV analyses, the ENPV is calculated on the basis of cash flows reflecting uncertainties in and relationship between different underlying parameters
7 Risk or uncertainties of a project are captured by calculating the effect on the ENPV of both positive and negative changes in these parameters such as: – Economic/market related assumptions – Tax-related assumptions – Technical assumptions – IOR – Start-up date – Environmental assumptions – Country and reputation risk. The project decision is made, based on expected outcomes, before the realised value of the relevant parameters are revealed. – Simple methodology of valuing real options is using decision trees with probabilities for different outcomes.