REHABILITERINGSPLANLEGGING AV VA- LEDNINGER

Presentasjon om: "REHABILITERINGSPLANLEGGING AV VA- LEDNINGER"— Utskrift av presentasjonen:

1 REHABILITERINGSPLANLEGGING AV VA- LEDNINGER
-basert på EU prosjektene: CARE-W ( ) CARE-S ( )

2 CARE = Computer Aided REhabilitation of
W = Water networks S = Sewer networks

3 CARE-W Philosophy RE-ACTIVE APPROACH PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH
Our mission: Develop methods and integrated software supporting efficient rehabilitation decisions

4 Hovedplan Saneringsplan

5 Rehabiliteringsplanlegging i CARE-W/S

6 Agenda CARE-W Scope and overview CARE-W PI (Performance indicators)
CARE-W LTP (Hvor mye penger trenger en de neste år?) CARE-W FAIL (Hvilke ledninger er mest utsatt for brudd? Hvor mange brudd blir det? ) CARE-W REL (Hvor er de svake punktene på nettet? Hvor er konsekvensene ved brudd størst?) CARE-W ARP (Hvilke ledninger skal en prioritere mhp rehabilitering?)

7 Oslo Vannlekkasje. Føreren av denne bilen fikk seg en våt opplevelse da vedkommende ble overrumplet av en vannlekkasje i Gamle Hovesetervei i Oslo onsdag formiddag. En vannledning hadde sprunget lekk og vannet fosset opp av bakken da bilen skulle passere flomområdet. Asfalten ga imidlertid etter, og dermed ble det bråstopp for den uheldige sjåføren. Folk fra brannvesenet og Oslo kommune var raskt på stedet og fikk stanset lekkasjen. (Begge foto: Knut Welle) 375 mm grått støpejern fra 1940

8

9 What is CARE-W? …stands for Computer Aided REhabilitation of Water Networks …is a computer based system to support water companies to maintain and upgrade their water networks …is developed by 10 European research groups and 13 cities (”end-users”). …supported by the European Commission under the 5th Framework Programme for Research and Development. …has a budget of 3 mio € (2,1 mio £)

10 Consortium CARE-W

11 CARE-W prototype Graphical user interface (GUI)
“CARE-W MANAGER” Graphical user interface (GUI) CARE-W central database Performance indicators (PI tool) Identify the performance of a water supply system for monitoring, target setting and benchmarking Failure forecasting Identify individual pipes and areas with a high failure potential Water supply reliability Identify the most vulnerable points in a water supply system and the associated pipes Annual rehabilitation planning Select the most cost-efficient rehab projects for an annual rehab programme under consideration of various criteria Long-term rehabilitation planning Explore the future rehab investment needs and consequences and define the optimal rehab strategy Now… PI Tool, a performance indicators tool developed by LNEC in Portugal

12 CARE-W different tools for different situations

13 DATA REQUIREMENTS

14 CARE-W prototype Graphical user interface (GUI)
“CARE-W MANAGER” Graphical user interface (GUI) CARE-W central database Performance indicators (PI tool) Identify the performance of a water supply system for monitoring, target setting and benchmarking Failure forecasting Identify individual pipes and areas with a high failure potential Water supply reliability Identify the most vulnerable points in a water supply system and the associated pipes Annual rehabilitation planning Select the most cost-efficient rehab projects for an annual rehab programme under consideration of various criteria Long-term rehabilitation planning Explore the future rehab investment needs and consequences and define the optimal rehab strategy Now… PI Tool, a performance indicators tool developed by LNEC in Portugal PI-tool

15 Op15 Mains rehabilitation

16 Example of a PI tool window
It is a very “user-friendly” tool. The Utility Information (UI) and the External Information (EI) are organized in a simple pre-formatted excel file; Based in the UI and EI that we imported, the program shows us the Performance Indicators (PI) that can be calculated. The tool can show us all the characteristics of each PI or UI selected.

17 Detailed PI result analysis
Op15 – MAINS REHABILITATION (%/year) Concept: Length of transmition and distribution mains rehabilitated during the year / total mains length x 100 Processing rule: Op15 = D18/C6 x 100 Variables: D18 – Mains rehabilitation (km/year) C6 – Mains length (km) Statistics Op15 (%/year) 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Case study Guidance range This tool allows us to do a comparative analysis of different entities or several time periods from the same entity. Comments: The mean value of the results collected is 0.91% of mains rehabilitated per year and 50% of the case studies are situated in the range from 0.25 to 1.3% of mains rehabilitated per year. As it might be expected, a significant number of case studies present relatively low rehabilitation rates, corresponding in average to a mains lifetime of 110 years. Difficulties: A few end-users had difficulties with D18 (Mains rehabilitation). This difficulty seems to be due to the lack of record, not to the complexity of the variable itself, and nobody recommended abandoning this PI due to assessment difficulties. Relevance: This PI is considered essential or important by all end-users. PI guidance range: At this stage, a tentative recommended threshold seems to be % of mains rehabilitated per year, representing a global network renovation within a period of 50 to 100 years.

18 Zonewise PI Trend

19 1995

20 1996

21 1997

22 1998

23 1999

24 2000

25 2001

26 2002

27 2003

28 2004

29 CARE-W prototype Graphical user interface (GUI)
“CARE-W MANAGER” Graphical user interface (GUI) CARE-W central database Performance indicators (PI tool) Identify the performance of a water supply system for monitoring, target setting and benchmarking Failure forecasting Identify individual pipes and areas with a high failure potential Water supply reliability Identify the most vulnerable points in a water supply system and the associated pipes Long-term rehabilitation planning Explore the future rehab investment needs and consequences and define the optimal rehab strategy Annual rehabilitation planning Select the most cost-efficient rehab projects for an annual rehab programme under consideration of various criteria Long-term rehabilitation planning... To explore the future rehabilitation needs and consequences and define the optimal rehabilitation strategy there are four different tools: Rehab Scenario Writer (RSW) Rehab Strategy Manager (RSM) Rehab Strategy Evaluator (WRaP) Rehab Programme Evaluator (RPE) All these tools were developed by Dresden Univ. We only worked with the Rehab Strategy Manager (RSM) tool. RSW Rehab Scenario Writer RSM ( ex-“KANEW” ) Rehab Strategy Manager WRaP RehabStrategyEvaluator RPE RehabProgrammeEvaluator

30 CARE-W LTP (long term planning)
Generell overlevelses modell. Kan brukes på alt som ”dør” (både vann og avløp) Basert på overlevelsesfunksjoner (erfaring) Definisjon av ledningsgrupper (grupper av ledninger som utvikler seg likt) Basisparametre (GIS, ledningsregistre): Material Lengde Anleggsår Beregning av: Fornyelsesbehov hvert år Ledningsbeholdning over tid Gjennomsnittsalder og forventet restlevetid av nettet Skade- og Lekkasjerater Investeringskostnader Kostnadsbalanse ... for en optimistisk, gjennomsnittlig og pessimistisk prognose “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong!”

31 Trondheim kommune avløpsnett - klassifisering

32 FORVENTET LEVETID FOR AVLØPSNETTET I TRONDHEIM

33 Overlevelsesfunksjoner
Material 100 % pess. / opt. 50 % 10 % Gruppe 1 40 / 50 100 / 120 140 / 160 Gruppe 2 20 / 30 70 / 90 100 /120

34 Prognostisert fornyelsesbehov - år 2100 (forventet)

35 Fornyelsesrate for hele nettet år 2100

36 Investeringskostnader

37 CARE-W FAIL Graphical user interface (GUI) CARE-W central database
“CARE-W MANAGER” Graphical user interface (GUI) CARE-W central database Performance indicators (PI tool) Identify the performance of a water supply system for monitoring, target setting and benchmarking Failure forecasting Identify individual pipes and areas with a high failure potential Water supply reliability Identify the most vulnerable points in a water supply system and the associated pipes Long-term rehabilitation planning Explore the future rehab investment needs and consequences and define the optimal rehab strategy Annual rehabilitation planning Select the most cost-efficient rehab projects for an annual rehab programme under consideration of various criteria Failure Forecasting... To forecast failures in individual pipes or areas there are two different tools: PHM – Developed by CEMAGREF in France Poisson – Developed by INSA in France These tools produce similar results. PHM Proportional Hazard Model Poisson

38 CARE-W FAIL: Failure forecasting module
Predicts the probability of pipe failures Pipes are grouped in clusters of similar behaviour In general 5 years of data are sufficient to get useful results Tests showed that it is more important to have good data than many data This module predicts the probability of failure of a pipe based in the historical data available for the pipes; The pipes should be grouped in clusters of similar behaviour, according to material,diameter, year laid, number of previously observed failures or characterizing their environment (soil type, road traffic, etc.); In general… Tests showed… Poisson needs the availability of another commercial software “STATA”, so we weren't able to use it.

39 Example of a PHM window Inside the “CARE-W manager” we generate the input files for the tools (SDF and MDF files), text files with the parameters needed to calculate the desired results (ID, Length, Diameter, Material, Laid Year and Failure Date). Then we can return the results to the “CARE-W manager” and see the predicted failure rate for the selected network

40 Example of a PHM window CARE-W PHM results

41 CARE-W prototype Graphical user interface (GUI)
“CARE-W MANAGER” Graphical user interface (GUI) CARE-W central database Performance indicators (PI tool) Identify the performance of a water supply system for monitoring, target setting and benchmarking Failure forecasting Identify individual pipes and areas with a high failure potential Water supply reliability Identify the most vulnerable points in a water supply system and the associated pipes Long-term rehabilitation planning Explore the future rehab investment needs and consequences and define the optimal rehab strategy Annual rehabilitation planning Select the most cost-efficient rehab projects for an annual rehab programme under consideration of various criteria Long-term rehabilitation planning... To explore the future rehabilitation needs and consequences and define the optimal rehabilitation strategy there are four different tools: Rehab Scenario Writer (RSW) Rehab Strategy Manager (RSM) Rehab Strategy Evaluator (WRaP) Rehab Programme Evaluator (RPE) All these tools were developed by Dresden Univ. We only worked with the Rehab Strategy Manager (RSM) tool. RSW Rehab Scenario Writer RSM ( ex-“KANEW” ) Rehab Strategy Manager WRaP RehabStrategyEvaluator RPE RehabProgrammeEvaluator

42 “Det er sannsynlig at noe usannsynlig vil skje”
CARE-W Rel: Pålitelighetsanalyse av vannledningsnett Ulik: kapasitet sviktrate reparasjonstid Kilde VB Det er lett å se etterpå hvorfor det gikk galt. Analyse av leveringssikkerhtenen er en “etterpåklok på forhånd”! “Det er sannsynlig at noe usannsynlig vil skje” (Aristoteles, f.Kr.)

43 Hvor er de viktigste ledningene på Ugla? - rangering
Viktighet 0.2 0.6 0.8

44 Example of a Relnet window
Inside the “CARE-W manager” we generate the input files for the Relnet Tool. Previously we fed the “CARE-W manager” with the input file from the Hydraulic simulation model (EPANET). Then we can return the results to the “CARE-W manager” and see, with the help of the Hydraulic Critical Index (HCI), the most important and vulnerable pipes.

45 CARE-W prototype Graphical user interface (GUI)
“CARE-W MANAGER” Graphical user interface (GUI) CARE-W central database Performance indicators (PI tool) Identify the performance of a water supply system for monitoring, target setting and benchmarking Failure forecasting Identify individual pipes and areas with a high failure potential Water supply reliability Identify the most vulnerable points in a water supply system and the associated pipes Long-term rehabilitation planning Explore the future rehab investment needs and consequences and define the optimal rehab strategy Annual rehabilitation planning Select the most cost-efficient rehab projects for an annual rehab programme under consideration of various criteria Annual rehabilitation planning... To select the most cost-efficient rehab projects for an annual rehab programme under consideration of various criteria there are two different tools: Annual Rehabilitation Planning (ARP) Rehab Scheme Developer (RSD) These tools were developed by INSA in France We only worked with the Annual Rehabilitation Planning (ARP) tool. ARP Annual Rehabilitation Planning RSD Rehab Scheme Developer (Cost tool - link to ARP, Excel)

46 Faktorer som kan vektlegges ved prioritering av ledninger for rehab
Koordineringsgevinst (f.eks avløp, veg) Årlige reparasjons kostnader Vannlekkasjer Avbrudd i vannforsyning Følgeskader (trafikk, flom risiko, skade på annen infrastruktur) Vannkvalitet Leveringssikkerhet, (HCI) Ulemper knyttet til de ulike rehab teknikker Rehab kostnader Andre lokale kriterier (f.eks. områdevis rehab)

47 Damages due to flooding (DFI)
PBR(i): predicted break rate D(i): diameter P(i): trykk SFI (i): sensitivitet for flom Code Sensitivity to flooding SFI 1 Low 0,1 2 High

48 Traffic Disruption (DT)
DT(i) = PFR(i) x SR(i) Code Importance of road SR 1 Low 0,1 2 High PBR(i): predicted break rate Faktor for viktigheten av vegen

49 Performance matrix a3, ak a1 a2 Candidate pipes Criteria
Classification ARC PWI … DSM HCI a1 183 19 615 0,004 a2 269 31 905 ai 365 46 3275 aN 431 54 386 a1 a3, ak a2

50 ELECTRE Tri Impacts or risks 6 categories

51 CARE-W ARP results