Monetary Policy Kapittel 14 1.

Presentasjon om: "Monetary Policy Kapittel 14 1."— Utskrift av presentasjonen:

1 Monetary Policy Kapittel 14 1

2 Temaer i kapittel 14 Hvorfor er sentralbanker uavhengige
”Gain then pain” – eller piss i buksa effekten Pengepolitikk Pengepolitikk or realøkonomi

3 Pengepolitikk – Lars Svenssons rapport til NZ Reserve Bank
…People typically ask too much of monetary policy – no less in New Zealand than elsewhere. In the long run, monetary policy can only control nominal variables such as inflation and the nominal exchange rate. An attempt to increase the average level of growth rate of GDP or employment would trigger ever rising inflation, at increasing costs to the economy in terms of less efficient resource allocation and arbitrary and unequitable redistributions of income and assets. For these reasons, an increasing number of countries have specified price stability as the primary goal of monetary policy.

4 Politiske konjuntkursykluser
Politikere må sørge for å bli gjenvalgt, og i denne sammenhengen er den økonomiske situasjonen viktig Vanlig med stimulering av økonomien like før valg, som skaper inflasjon på litt sikt (time inconsistency) og reduserer troverdighet Sentralbanken skal være uavhengig – og ikke på valg fra en periode til neste

5 Inflation – New Zealand
What is inflation? When prices on average go up, that's inflation. The fundamental cause of ongoing inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Inflation usually happens when the economy is too buoyant, so that shortages of labour and materials become widespread, and prices in general rise. Then money starts losing its value. Typically an inflation-linked boom is followed by a bust. If prices rise faster than incomes, then people are worse off. As well, if interest paid on savings is less than inflation, then the interest is inadequate to compensate people for the fact that the value of their savings is being eaten away. Inflation also does long-term damage to the economy. When money doesn't hold its value, businesses and investors have more difficulty making contracts, especially where contracts have to last over time, eg employment contracts and borrowing. This discourages long-term, quality investment in the nation's productive capacity.

6 Reserve bank of New Zealand

7 PTA – New Zealand The current PTA has four sections. The first says that monetary policy shall maintain "stability in the general level of prices, so that monetary policy can make its maximum contribution to sustainable economic growth, employment and development opportunities within the New Zealand economy." The second section says that the Bank's inflation target shall be 0 to 3 per cent, defined in terms of the All Groups Consumers Price Index (CPI), as published by Statistics New Zealand. Section 3 says that, from time to time, extraordinary events will occur which will push inflation above or below the 0 to 3 per cent inflation target. The section says that when this happens monetary policy shall aim to stop the one-off inflationary or deflationary effect of the extraordinary event triggering more general inflation or deflation. The final section describes how the Reserve Bank shall implement and be accountable for its decisions. This includes providing explanations for any inflation breaches, or projected breaches, in the Bank's quarterly Monetary Policy Statements. This section also says that, as it implements monetary policy to achieve price stability, the Bank "shall seek to avoid unnecessary instability in output, interest rates and the exchange rate."

8 Økt rente ved overoppheting

9 ”Gain then pain” – eller PIBE

10 Phillips kurven – er død!

11 Uavhengighet og inflasjon

12 Just right, too hot or too cold?

13 Pengeetterspørsel Pengeetterspørsel viser hvor mye penger man vil holde ved en gitt rente Penger gir ikke rente, slik at tapt rente er en alternativkostnad ved å plassere deler av sin formue i penger Det er derfor negativ sammenheng mellom rente og pengeetterspørsel

14 Pengeetterspørsel

15 Rentenivå over tid

16 Pengeetterspørsel

17 Pengetilbud

18 Andre instrumenter ”Discount rate” – renten bankene betaler på lån i the Fed I Norge bruker Norges Bank foliorenten for å styre rentenivået Reservekrav påvirker også rentenivå

19 Norges Bank og renter

20 Renter og valuta I et system med flytende valutakurser vil renten som vi har sett påvirke valuta-kursen Med faste valutakurser må renten være identisk – slik det var i EU selv før innføringen av Euro Ustabile kurser kan redusere handel Faste valutakurser kan være et viktig element i prisstabilitet