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Oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 61 NB: Program for onsdag 14.02, Strategi 2  Intuisjon i strategiprosess, Gisle Henden  Bjarne Kiil vil gjennomgå kursperspektiv,

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Presentasjon om: "Oh090 bi strategi 2 2001 session 61 NB: Program for onsdag 14.02, Strategi 2  Intuisjon i strategiprosess, Gisle Henden  Bjarne Kiil vil gjennomgå kursperspektiv,"— Utskrift av presentasjonen:

1 oh090 bi strategi session 61 NB: Program for onsdag 14.02, Strategi 2  Intuisjon i strategiprosess, Gisle Henden  Bjarne Kiil vil gjennomgå kursperspektiv, gjesteforelesers rolle og temasammenheng som en oppsumering midt i semesteret  Basert på spørsmål fra studenter vil Bjarne Kiil drøfte og gi råd i forbindelse med semesteroppgaven.  Blir det tid vil kaosteori bli initiert, og vil antakelig bli fulgt opp i en senere forelesning

2 oh090 bi strategi session 62 Strategi 2: Strategiprosess Sesjon 6 Bjarne Kiil, Ph. D. Professor II, Institutt for strategi

3 oh090 bi strategi session 63 Planning perspective (W+M) First explicitly formulating comprehensive plans, and only then implement. (Figuring out)

4 oh090 bi strategi session 64 Incremental perspective Some strategists argue that in reality most new strategies emerge over time and that organisations should facilitate this messy, fragmental piecemeal formation process. Re: Incremental Somewhat like innovators: Searching, experimenting, learning, doubting and avoiding premature decision closures and “lock-in” Strategic Intent “Quinn”: Father of the paradigm shift to Incrementalism “Reasonable and well considered”

5 oh090 bi strategi session 65 The ten strategy tensions WM 2nd edition 1.1

6 oh090 bi strategi session 66 Perspektiv på kurset Tension Planning Incrementalism (W+M) page chapter 3 Quinn: Logical Incrementalism Hamel: Strategy as Revolution (Warming up) Strategy formation Tension 3 Hammel & Prahalad: Strategic Intent

7 oh090 bi strategi session 67 Planning versus incrementalism perspective, tension 3

8 oh090 bi strategi session 68 Øystein Fjeldstad  Behov for begge (Balance)  Behov for variasjon  “Experts Myopia”  Plassering på skalaen har innflytelse på “Process Perspective” Viktig dimensjon (kortsiktig - langsiktig) Exploitation Revolution Tension 4 Finner igjen i “Edge of Chaos” Strategic change Tension 4 Innledning/motivering til innovasjonsledelse, kreativitet Exploitation Evolution

9 oh090 bi strategi session 69 Discontinuous change versus continuous change perspective, tension 4 WM 2nd edition, 4.1

10 oh090 bi strategi session 610 Ragnhild Kvålshaugen  Knowledge management  Organisational learning  Selforganisation  Innovation “Knowledge development cycle”- mechanism   Strategic intent  Logical incrementalism PlanningIncrementalism “Evolver - Revolutionary”Sequential OR simultaneously Edge of Chaos (balance + simultaneous) Strategic Thinking Tension 2 Nonaka: “The knowledge creating company”

11 oh090 bi strategi session 611 The rational thinking versus generative thinking perspective, tension 2

12 oh090 bi strategi session 612 Reidar Ness  Co-operation - Consultant  Focus on the value and importance of analysis and rational thinking  This is not unique to Planning Perspective  “Quinn”, “Strategy intent” and “Innovation” all include analysis and rational thinking  Incrementalism without target will also include “event driven” analysis. Management Highly analytical Highly experimental and learning Tension

13 oh090 bi strategi session 613 Bjarne Kiil Chaos perspective:  Unknowable  Selforganising  Robust strategies  Experimenting  Deep structure/?  Feedback and transformation Why? The theory “confirm scientifically” the explicit and tacit assumption and concept embedded in “strategy literature”, i.e.: Little new, but an additional approach Control vs. chaos Tension 9  Beinhocker: “Edge of chaos”  Macintosh & Maclean: “Conditioned emergence”

14 oh090 bi strategi session 614 Øivind Revang  Change path analysis  Cultural aspects Management of change - Implementation Implication on “Prosess dimention” (Reflect) Strategic change Tension 4

15 oh090 bi strategi session 615 Mark Kriger  Organisational vision  Purpose  Direction - strategic intent: Reflect!  Interrelationship – process –vision –values –culture –leadership “The core of the course”: To develop such understanding

16 oh090 bi strategi session 616 Olav Fjell (konsernsjef) Case: Reflect on perspectives along several dimensions

17 oh090 bi strategi session 617 The strategic intent – key issues (From Hamel & Prahalad)  Strategic intent is clear about the goal, flexible as to means  Allows for improvisation and creativity  Limited value of analysis (Honda, Cannon, Sony, “Twenty Years War”)  The goal of strategy is to fold the future back into the present  What must we do next year to get closer to our strategic intent  Ambitions out of proportion to resources  Obsession on winning  Establish criteria for chartering the process  Intent, more than wishful thinking and ambition  Active management process based on –Essence of winning –Value of target

18 oh090 bi strategi session 618 The strategic intent – key issues  Stable over time, lengthen attention-span of organisation  Identify focal points for employees effort in near to medium term (intent derivatives) I.e. reduce development time with 75 per cent  Search for accelerated organisational learning  Leveraging resources  Growth depends on ability of top managers to aggregate the effort of multiple teams towards an ambitious strategic intent  Playing by the industry leaders rules is competitive suicide Examples:  Man on the moon before the Sovjet Union  NEC’s strategy/intent 1970: –“Acquire the best technologies that will put the company in the best position to exploit the convergens of computing and telecommunication”  Coca Cola – to put a Coke within “arms reach” of every consumer in the world

19 oh090 bi strategi session 619 The strategic intent – key issues  On the other hand:  Planning perspective typically acts as a “feasability sieve” –Be precise about how and what –Encourage management to “be realistic”  How can Honda detail 20 years of strategy for attacking western markets Top managers are like astronauts, to perform well they need the intelligence that is back on the ground

20 oh090 bi strategi session 620 Eksempel “Strategic intent”  Restrukturering av industrien (mål 3 aktører, høye inngangsbarrierer)  10 x (dagens størrelse)  Østeuropa - hovedområde for selskapets vekst  Kun relatert diversifisering dvs benytter strategisk kjerne  Vekst gjennom allianser prefereres

21 oh090 bi strategi session 621 Oppgave  Skissere ideer til framgangsmåte  Uten at dette representerer “et krav”  Andre angrepsmåter kan være interessante (kreativt)  Ønskelig? Med utgangspunkt i prosessperspektiv, “finne” ut (bedømme) hva som “preger” den bedrift som er valgt. Mange forskjellige dimensjoner og kombinasjoner kan karakterisere en bedrift. (Gradering, ikke sort eller hvitt.) W+M, Ch. 3: P (i kompendium) W+M, Ch. 2: P W+M, Ch. 4: P

22 oh090 bi strategi session 622 Mulige elementer  Begrepsavklaring - Hoveddimensjoner  Refleksjon, valg og håndtering av sekundær dimensjoner  Valg av egnet framstillingsmetode (grafisk)  Valg av indikatorer  Analyse av “caset”  Tolkning inn i begrepsapparatet  Konklusjoner –verbal –grafisk

23 oh090 bi strategi session 623 Mulig hovedbegrep Incrementel PlanInnovasjon Skala 1:10 for hver dimensjon

24 oh090 bi strategi session 624 Er dette et egnet alternativ? Incrementel +intent Innovasjon Plan Strategisk intent - bevisst filosofi eller tacit?

25 oh090 bi strategi session 625 Eksempler på mulige kandidater til “dimensjonen”  Planlegging  Incrementale  Strategisk intent  Strategisk fleksibilitet  Ledelsens filosofi “Top down, bottom up”  Bruk av analyse  Strategisk tenkning. Rasjonell eller kreativ  Innovasjon  lærende as selvorganisering  Foretningsmessig eksperimentering  Mulig gradering eller gruppering i primære og sekundære i forhold til de overordnede prosessperspektiv)  Håndterbart antall Skala 1:10 med polariseringsbegrep

26 oh090 bi strategi session 626 Innovasjon (Kan nyttegjøres i oppgave 1 og 2) Organisasjon Arbeidsprosesser Produkter Forretnings- modeller Industri- struktur ExploitationExploration  Balanse exploitation-exploration

27 oh090 bi strategi session 627 Klart og stabilt mål Hendelsesdrevet Innovasjon Entreprenør- lederskap Analyse Planlegging Incrementel Er en slik fremstilling egnet til tolkning?

28 oh090 bi strategi session 628 Indikatorer på valgte dimensjoner Hentes fra det aktuelle “bedriftscase” (konkrete hendelser eller forhold) Identifiseres Domene Eksempel: Innovasjonsdomene Klart, stabilt mål Indikatordomene for Strategic Intent

29 oh090 bi strategi session 629 Oppgave 2 Denne kan om ønskelig og egnet bygge på analyse i oppgave 1

30 oh090 bi strategi session 630 System dynamics  What is needed is a model of a world where innovation, change and uncertainty are natural state of things  “Edge of chaos” viewpoint. Instability, selforganisation, spontaneous and unpredictability. Innovations avoiding upheaval as in chaos  “Dissipative structures”. Order emerge from chaos through interaction of rules, deep structure and organisational processes

31 oh090 bi strategi session 631 Punctuated equilibrium Time Change Stasis Punctuation points

32 oh090 bi strategi session 632 Typical performance (400 companies) Return to shareholders Industry mean Years

33 oh090 bi strategi session 633 The edge of chaos Fitness StasisEdge of chaosChaos Rapid, radical change Slow, incremental change

34 oh090 bi strategi session 634 According to "Stacey"  Nothing can remove that unknowability and it follows that, if an organization is operating in the border area of stability and instability, as it must if it is to innovate, then any decision making process that involves forecasting, envisioning future states, or even making any assumptions about future states will be ineffective.  Those applying such processes in conditions of bounded instability will be engaged in fantasy activities

35 oh090 bi strategi session 635 Example: Microsoft Focused and Robust  Shaping bets (Windows)  Hedges (OS/2)  No regrets (object oriented programming)

36 oh090 bi strategi session 636 Rules for picking probes  Develop many types of low cost probes (time and content variation)  Choose some probes with high risk of failure (effective learning)  Pick probes requiring implementation followed by measurement of result  Volatile business environment requires more probes  Big probes to be subdivided for maximum learning opportunity  Verify most likely future using probes  Use also some random probes  Result of probes to shape strategic moves  “Timebox” probing, commit to action

37 oh090 bi strategi session 637 The bifurcation diagram Performance (output) Time (input) Bifurcation point

38 oh090 bi strategi session 638 Amended bifurcation diagram Performance (output) Time (input) Bifurcation zone (2) (1)

39 oh090 bi strategi session 639 Deep rules Ø. Lorentzen Old rules:  Top-down (generations)  Poor economic control accepted  Use of marketing brokers  Attitude to partners  Planning perspective  Diversified/conglomerate New rules:  Bottom up  Tight economic control  Marketing and sales internalised  Partner symmetry  Incrementalism  One business focus

40 oh090 bi strategi session 640 Conditioned emergence New archetype Old archetype Chaotic period Bifurcation point Declining performance Equilibrium FailureSuccess

41 oh090 bi strategi session 641 The conditioned emergence model Conditioning Creating far-from equilibrium conditions Managing the feedback process Step 1 Step 3Step 2  Identification of the deep structure and rules that underpins its current archetypes  Formulation of a new deep structure consisting of new rules + selected old rules  Movement away from equilibrium conditions to create space for the new deep structure  Typical mechanism is a major restructuring exercise  Key managerial task is looking for signals consistent with new structure  Encourage anything that reinforces the rules while suppressing negative feedback


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