PREDICTIVE MODELLING REGRESSION ANALYSIS. “Da jeg gikk på ungdomskolen, ble vi testet for å finne ut hva slags yrke vi passet til. Jeg svarte feil på.

Presentasjon om: "PREDICTIVE MODELLING REGRESSION ANALYSIS. “Da jeg gikk på ungdomskolen, ble vi testet for å finne ut hva slags yrke vi passet til. Jeg svarte feil på."— Utskrift av presentasjonen:

1 PREDICTIVE MODELLING REGRESSION ANALYSIS

2 “Da jeg gikk på ungdomskolen, ble vi testet for å finne ut hva slags yrke vi passet til. Jeg svarte feil på alt, så de anbefalte meg å bli metereolog.” Herodes Falsk (29) klovn til NÅ

3 PREDICTIVE MODELLING Process control Process Analysis/Calibration Product properties.....................................................

4 STEPS IN PREDICTIVE MODELLING 1) Collect representative data 2) Establish a validated predicted model between the response(s) and the input variables.

5 STARTPOINT Obs. no.XY 1.. 2.. 3.. 4.....

6 LEAST SQUARES METHOD Calculate the parameters b 0 and b 1

7 LEAST SQUARES METHOD x y xkxk Minimise for model

8 LEAST SQUARES METHOD (1) (2) (2) in (1): (3) Partial derivation: 2 equations, 2 unknown (b 0,b 1 )!!

9 LEAST SQUARES METHOD Error in b 0 and b 1 : Solved for b 0,b 1 :

10 PREDICTIVE MODEL y x

11 y x Measured x Predicted y PREDICTIVE MODEL

12 VALIDATION x y Model 1 Model 2 i) Model group 1, residual sum group 2 ii) Model group 2, residual sum group 1 1 3 57 9 11 13 15 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Group 1: 1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15 Group 2: 2,4,6,8,10,12,14

13 CHOLESTEROL AND AGE 1. Is there a correspondence between cholesterol and age? 2. Find the correspondence using a Predictive Model 3. Check the MODEL

14 The Cholesterol example: Age Cholesterol 142151 249170 364226 433147 571254 655235 749194 852165 937153 1059218 1150222 1262246 Is there a mathematical relationship between the concentration of cholesterol in the blood and age?

15 SCATTER DIAGRAM FOR THE CHOLESTEROL (x,y)

16 REGRESSION LINE FOR THE CHOLESTEROL (Average point (x,y))